|Battery Raw Materials – 10 year forecast|
Will scarce raw materials grind the lithium battery market to a halt?
|Research and Written by : Roz Hilton|
Can the mining industry can keep up with demand
for raw battery materials?
The qualified answer is yes. But not without some shortages and some price hikes.
|There are tons of detractors taking to social media platforms suggesting that raw materials mining just simply cannot keep up with demand and that this fact alone will see the EV market fall flat on its face. So we thought we’d do some modelling and the outcome is our forecast on battery raw materials entitled “Will scarce raw materials grind the lithium battery market to a halt?” This report takes a long hard look at whether or not battery raw materials will run out, as the battery industry ramps up output. In 2023 we will see 621 GWh of batteries produced for EVs sold in the three largest territories – China, Europe’s 5 largest economies and the US.|
Lithium and Graphite supply will be under strain through to 2026.
The Inflation Reduction Act’s insistence on new supply lines will see most market opt for LFP, LMFP or M3P batteries, because of the ease of setting up supply chain.
Manganese demand will increase significantly with the advent and following acceleration of LMFP production.
Demand for nickel (NMC) and cobalt-based chemistries will fall and be limited to North America at the top end of car markets.
Graphite is the next big problem for battery makers due to its current heavy concentration within China.